Basically, Kirkpatrick says that, for a variety of reasons, the Republican Party can't necessarily rely on the total allegiance of evangelical Protestants anymore. While still very socially conservative, many in the religious right are ready for a new brand of evangelical-influenced politics. In particular, Kirkpatrick examines evangelical churches in Wichita, Kansas. Wichita is apparently a stronghold for big evangelical churches and has been the home of some notable players in the religious right. Kirkpatrick says there are some changes going on there that carry some significance and are symptomatic of more widespread changes affecting the rest of the country. Here are some of his main points.
- Younger evangelicals are less likely to affiliate with the Republican Party. This is also backed up by a recent Pew report. This likely has to do a lot with the Iraq situation and dissatisfaction over the war and the current administration. For that reason, I wouldn't expect that alone to significantly change evangelicals' party affiliations.
- Kirkpatrick does suggest, however, that many evangelicals are starting to get concerned with issues like environmentalism and economic justice. If this can get widespread support among evangelicals and grounding in evangelical theology and rhetoric, then it could signal a shift in party affiliation. But I wouldn't expect it to be major.
- He suggests that part of the shift away from the Republican Party could be from dissatisfaction with the party and its inability to deliver when it comes to social and moral issues. It's hard for me to imagine a big shift to the Democratic Party, however. I'd expect that more would simply become independents.
- It also likely has something to do with there not being a presidential candidate that they can really rally behind. Romney is a Mormon, Giuliani is a "lapsed-Catholic big-city mayor," Fred Thompson is a "church-skipping Hollywood character actor," and McCain is a "political renegade known for crossing swords with the Rev. Pat Robertson and the Rev. Jerry Falwell."
- Kirkpatrick also talked to several evangelical theologians who expressed concern that there was going to be something of a split among evangelicals that would mirror the split between evangelical and mainline Protestants early in the 20th century.
It's long but it's important: This weekend's New York Times Magazine published The Evangelical Crackup, an article describing how a new generation of evangelical pastors is telling the Republican Party that they can still be friends, but they need to start seeing other people. They're noticing that Christianity has more political significance than just anti-abortion and anti-gay-rights, and they're starting to pay attention to a few liberal issues like the environment and poverty. Scriptural religion is a mixed bag, but you have to give it this: No matter how long people ignore the Sermon on the Mount, it stays in the book. Sooner or later somebody's bound to run across it again and ask: "Why aren't we doing anything about this?"
Over at Debra Haffner's blog, she had the following to say:
And the New York Times magazine once again declared the death of the radical religious right. . . As to the New York Times, as I said when Jerry Falwell died, reports of the death of religious conservatives is premature. As someone who advocates for the rights of women and LGBT persons, it's not time to celebrate.
To an extent I suppose I share her concern about the article and conclusions that folks might be tempted to draw, but I don't think the article was a "premature obituary" as she called it in her title, or even an obituary for that matter. I don't see loads of evangelicals flocking to the Democratic Party or changing their mind on social issues. But the article presents some pretty compelling evidence that there might be some shifts in store in the evangelical political world.

